Setting up your first Stress Test scenario

In KODAI, go to Forecasts & Stress Testing (or the equivalent section name in your app). You'll see an area to create or edit a scenario. A scenario is a single "what if": e.g. what if 5% of active customers churn this month, or what if 10% of current MRR is lost to failed payments.

A scenario has inputs and outputs. Inputs define the shock: the percentage of customers or MRR you assume will churn or fail, and over which period (e.g. one month, or the next quarter). Outputs are the projected metrics after that shock: e.g. MRR or subscriber count in the following months. You can compare a baseline (no shock) to one or more stress scenarios to see the impact.

This is the percentage you assume will leave or fail. For example, "5% churn" means 5% of the selected base (e.g. active subscribers or current MRR) is removed in the scenario. The number can be a one-time shock (e.g. 5% in Month 1 only) or a recurring assumption (e.g. 5% every month). Check the label in the UI—it may say "Churn rate", "Loss rate", or "Failure rate"—and the help text to see whether it applies to count or MRR.

The time horizon is how far into the future the projection goes (e.g. 6 months, 12 months). The period is the step size: usually one month. So "12 months" means you see month-by-month projections for the next 12 months. Some views let you pick the start month or "from today" so the x-axis matches your planning window.

The baseline is the path of MRR or subscribers if nothing changes (no extra churn or failure). The scenario curve is the path after applying your stress assumption. The gap between them shows the impact: e.g. how much lower MRR is each month if 5% churn happens. If you run multiple scenarios (e.g. 3%, 5%, 10% churn), each gets its own curve so you can compare severity.

The y-axis is usually MRR (revenue) or subscriber count. The x-axis is time (months). So each point is "MRR in that month" or "subscribers in that month" under that scenario. Tooltips or a legend explain which line is baseline and which is which scenario. Use this to answer questions like: if we lose 5% of MRR this quarter, where do we stand in six months?

You can often save a scenario with a name (e.g. "5% monthly churn") and come back to it. Comparing two or three scenarios side by side helps with planning: e.g. best case (low churn), base case, and worst case (high churn). Use the numbers to set targets or to prioritize retention and payment recovery so you don't land in the worst-case curve.

Create a scenario with a churn or loss rate and a time horizon. Read the baseline and scenario curves to see how MRR or subscribers change month by month. Use multiple scenarios to plan for different levels of stress and focus actions where they matter most.